The Korea Local Administration Review

The purpose of this study is to empirically identify the effects of the central government’s support policies on population growth (total population, natural increase, social increase). This study used a panel regression analysis fixed-effects model for 136 city and county types of local governments from 2004 to 2020.
The analysis results are as follows. First, in model (1) examining the total population, the population policy and growth policy has a negative effect on the total population, the dependent variable, at the 99.9% confidence level. In addition, urban policy affects the dependent variable, the total population, in a positive direction at the 95% confidence level. Second, in model (2) examining natural increase, both population policy and growth policy have a negative effect on the number of natural increase, a dependent variable, at the confidence level of 95% and 99.9%. Lastly, in model (3) examining social growth, only growth policy positively affect social growth, the dependent variable, at the 90% confidence level.
The results indicate that among the three policies, urban policies contribute to total population growth, while growth policies have a positive impact on social growth. In the case of urban policies, there is no significant effect on natural or social growth, and there is no empirical evidence found linking the policy-driven urban development to population influx or an increase in birth rates. On the other hand, population support policies were found to have a negative impact on total population and natural growth. Among the three policies, growth policy is the only one that positively influences social growth, and it is estimated that the support measures within the growth policy (such as developing quality of life infrastructure, fostering industries, improving settlement conditions, etc.) yield significant effects.