Basic Report

The total population decrease and associated demographic changes have been raised as a serious issue that might cause enormous social and economic effects. In particular, such issue of demographic changes may have grater impacts on small and medium cities in Korea, who have already been suffered from socioeconomic decline. This changing circumstances necessitates us to clarify to what extent local cities are experiencing population decrease, and what are the main causes in the outflow of local people. Thus, this study aims to analyze the characteristics of the demographic structure of the local governments in Korea by considering both the natural and social population changes, and propose regional development strategies that could help local governments to better respond to the demographic changes. By analyzing the natural and social population changes and the demographic structure, in particular, the study attempts the categorization of local governments and examines the causes of population outflow by applying both quantitative and qualitative methods. Given this purpose, the study first reviews related debates on smart city, shrinking cities, inclusive city, and decentralized regional development policy. Then, the study examines population policies in Korea by a comparative perspective with Japan, who has proceeded with proactive population policy, thereby it draws policy implications. Contrary to Japan, the population policies in Korea have been more focused on the provision of partial pregnancy, childbirth and childcare support programs such as medical expenses for pregnancy and childbirth, support for diaper and milk powder, and immunization for infants and young children. At the local level, local governments have tried to develop diverse approaches such as housing, job, education, and welfare. However, such approaches are rarely connected with spatial policies, which has exposed obvious limitations in promoting comprehensive population policies. In Chapter 4, the study classifies local cities by the characteristics of social and natural demographic changes, and analyzes the causes of population outflow. In order to categorize local cities, the study uses Mann-Whitney U test and the Kruskal-Wallis test to compare the different types. From 2000 to 2016, the study finds that 138 (61.1%) cities among a total of 226 local cities have experienced declines in the total population. Of these, 77 local cities (34.1%) are included in type Ⅳ, which is the most serious type in which natural decline and social decline occur at the same time. Type V, in which the natural population is increasing, whereas the total population is decreasing due to the social decrease, has 61 local cities (27.0%). Also the results shows that since 2000, the demographic decline and regional disparities of local governments in Korea have been more influenced by social population change rather than natural population change. The main characteristics in the demographic structural change of each age group are a sharp decline in the under-9 population, a decline in the young population in their 20s and 30s, and a sharp increase in the number of primary baby boomers and super-aged people. Unlike Type I, which has a population increase of 10s to 30s, Type IV has the greatest proportion of older people aged 65 and over, while the share of young people in their 20s and 30s has declined sharply. Also the result shows that Type Ⅴ, which has a population pyramid similar to Type Ⅰ, but declining due to outflow of all ages, included most autonomous ‘gu’s in Seoul, Changwon, Mokpo, Gyeongju, and Iksan. Using KOSIS micro data, the study examines the causes of population outflow and finds that in case of the large cities, the issue of housing is found the largest reason for population outflow, whareas job is found the largest reason in most ‘gun’ areas. Chapter 5 conducts an in-depth case study of typical cases that represent different types. The case selection considered the characteristics of the demographic structure, the unique features or identity of local area, and the local demands. Here local demands can also be seen as causes of outflow in that local people may decide to move out for their unfulfilled demand. The selected cases are Hwacheon-gun as a model of educational policy, Jeongeup-si as a case of elderly friendly community model, and Gokseong-gun as a model of job creation policy for the young generation. The results of the three cases study include that they commonly diagnosed by themselves on the causes of local population decline. Based on that self diagnosis, each selected priorities for the most urgent problems and took strategies of selection and concentration to solve their defined problems. Second, they also established legal and institutional systems such as ordinances and basic plans, and formed an exclusive organization to support the targeted local policies. However, the results also find that three cases have still relied heavily on the national government’s financial supports in implementing local population policies. Although they have tried to promote and expand their own projects, it is further needed to generate more creative ideas and effective policy alternatives. Finally, Chapter 6 proposes the basic direction of the regional development policy in response to the demographic change, including the change of regional development policies towards smart-shrinking city, the inclusive consideration of small population cities in regional development policies, and the analytical and comprehensive approach for population decreasing areas. In addition, the policy suggestions by this study can be made as follows. First, the national government has to change the national supportive system in a way that local governments take the lead in creating alternative and locally tailored policy strategies to better respond population decreases. For that, an exclusive administrative department including a (tentatively) “Population Policy Officer” has to be formed under The Department of Planning, not the Department of Health and Welfare, so that integrated strategies can be successfully undertaken. Second, local governments should set up its own 'population policy vision' and establish a five-year plan for local demographic vitality. Third, it is also necessary to introduce “pre-post population impact assessment system” and evaluate local projects by the five-year plan. Lastly, like Japan, the national government can consider the designation of “The Population and Local Vitality Law” in order to fully support for population related policies.